Tuesday, July 10, 2007

Sux

You know what sucks? Getting in all-in over and over late in sit-n-gos with something like AQ vs AJ and constantly losing. Seems like dominated hands are a huge favorite against me because I'm something like 1-5 vs them when 1st or 2nd is on the line. Occasionally, it's something simple like the J and that's no biggie. Too often I watch in horror as the turn puts 3 to a straight or flush out and the river brings the 4-flush or 4-straight which their live card fits neatly into. Over and over. GGrr. Why do I lose in such spectacular fashion. Can't I just go down to a pocket pair or overcards?

The runner-runner thing has just been killing me lately. After I see the turn card help their hand, I'm a huge dog to lose to the 3 outer on the river. I know this is bad logic and over the long run this is just an anomaly, but I'm experiencing that little blip right now a lot for such a small sample.

For instance, the other day in a limit game I made exactly two strong hands. The first of which I have QT in the BB. 4 other players limp. Flop is KJ9 rainbow. I flopped the nut straight. I lead out and it gets called by all 4 players. Here we go, with the way things are going recently, I'm almost expecting a Q or T to fall, but praying it doesn't. I'm thinking "No Q, no T, no Q no T." The Turn: A Ten obv. Fuck. The pot is pretty big at this point and I'm ok with at least splitting with someone. One guy bets, 1 caller, I raise, the original bettor calls, the caller in between us raises accidently (she thought she was calling but puts too much in the pot), and I cap it out. There's about 80 in the pot now. "Ok, anything but a Q, anything but a Q" River: Q. Now the exact fucking straight I flopped is sitting on the board and anyone with an Ace takes it down.

Odds of Q or T on turn: about 1 in 8 times.
Odds of the remaining card on the river: about 1 in 15
Odds of Runner-Runner after flop: 1-2%

Running bad and hating every minute of it.
GGrr.

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