Wednesday, July 11, 2007

Thurs 7/12 11-2a.m. Session

9-handed

During current Hold'em session you were dealt 207 hands and saw flop:
- 14 out of 23 times while in big blind (60%)
- 12 out of 26 times while in small blind (46%)
- 26 out of 158 times in other positions (16%)
- a total of 52 out of 207 (25%)
Pots won at showdown - 3 of 7 (42%)
Pots won without showdown - 9

I need to get PokerTracker up and post those stats. Poor session here. I didn't catch many hands and missed most flops with hands like AK/AQ/AJ after pre-flop raises. I also limped more than average, partly due to the number of weak holdings and number of limpers before me. I don't like overlimping, but I didn't want to build a big pot with these type hands. Perhaps a mistake. 2 Showdowns were due to many players checking all the way. I lost two big pots. One with AA to a short-stack that flopped a straight, the other to another short stack after he called a large pot sized bet with a flush draw, hit it on the turn, and made a pot bet all-in on the river. In hindsight I could probably have gotten away from KQ (top pair) here since he's not making that move with any hand I beat. He just played the flush very strangely and I knew he didn't have a set or two pair. I was mostly worried about AK at the time, but should have been able to sniff out the slow-played flush with more thought. I didn't make any big hands this session. No sets, no straights, flushes, or full houses and so I didn't win any big pots as well.

Tuesday, July 10, 2007

Most Profitable Poker Ever

Florida recently opened up from $2 bet max to $5 bet max as well as opening $1/2 No-Limit. At the local cardroom in Jasper, the place suddenly got extrememly busy. On my first trip back after the change, I had to wait an hour just for a seat! I haven't sat down at the 1/2 No Limit, but I've heard stories and I've seen stacks. Rednecks/Young Guns love the All-in and there are people busting out left and right. Monster chip stacks in front of people that are playing on a wing and a prayer. People are dropping 3-400 a trip and other people are cashing out a Grand in the plus only a few hours later. It's completely sic.

I plan to play as soon as possible and hopefully before all the people dropping off money figure out they might not be as good at this game as their home game leads them to beleive. The problem is that I need an extra large bankroll to play right in this game. NL is swingy as is, but when you're playing with a table full of people that overbet, overvalue, and love to bluff, you're going to experience extra large swings. The volatility should be through the roof and even if you play far better, you will sometimes hit a downswing full of suckouts that could cause you to lose several hundred.

Working my bankroll up to the amount I need to have will also give me time to work on things that will be effective in that game such as pot control.

Right now there are internet pros in Florida making a killing playing as low as 1/2. It's like releasing only a few sharks among thousands of fish. Utopia. If Florida completely opens up the limits, it will attract a new tourist - Pros.

Florida will EASILY be the most profitable place in the world to play poker. At least until the sharks swarm in.

Wed 7/11 10-12p.m.

9-Handed
During current Hold'em session you were dealt 219 hands and saw flop:
- 17 out of 27 times while in big blind (62%)
- 11 out of 28 times while in small blind (39%)
- 29 out of 164 times in other positions (17%)
- a total of 57 out of 219 (26%)
Pots won at showdown - 11 of 12 (91%)
Pots won without showdown - 10

Folded hands like AJ and KJ to raises pre-flop. Folded A10, KJ etc from early position. Only played connectors from very late position, raising a couple times. Limped only occasionally, mostly either raising or folding. This was especially effective after several rounds at the table when my tight image was established and a small raise could get it 2 or 3 handed. Bluffed via continuation bets only 2 or 3 times. Mostly straightforward value betting or folding. Folded top two pair J8, on a J87 flop to a limper who re-raised my flop raise, then led a double-the-pot sized bet on K turn. No idea how he played. Not sure if folding was right or not, just a bit unsure how to proceed so I folded, not knowing where I was and he wanted to play a big pot. Wished I had paid more attention to how he played top pair/two pair/sets. Otherwise just stayed out of trouble with marginal hands and tried to play small pots with top pair.

Sux

You know what sucks? Getting in all-in over and over late in sit-n-gos with something like AQ vs AJ and constantly losing. Seems like dominated hands are a huge favorite against me because I'm something like 1-5 vs them when 1st or 2nd is on the line. Occasionally, it's something simple like the J and that's no biggie. Too often I watch in horror as the turn puts 3 to a straight or flush out and the river brings the 4-flush or 4-straight which their live card fits neatly into. Over and over. GGrr. Why do I lose in such spectacular fashion. Can't I just go down to a pocket pair or overcards?

The runner-runner thing has just been killing me lately. After I see the turn card help their hand, I'm a huge dog to lose to the 3 outer on the river. I know this is bad logic and over the long run this is just an anomaly, but I'm experiencing that little blip right now a lot for such a small sample.

For instance, the other day in a limit game I made exactly two strong hands. The first of which I have QT in the BB. 4 other players limp. Flop is KJ9 rainbow. I flopped the nut straight. I lead out and it gets called by all 4 players. Here we go, with the way things are going recently, I'm almost expecting a Q or T to fall, but praying it doesn't. I'm thinking "No Q, no T, no Q no T." The Turn: A Ten obv. Fuck. The pot is pretty big at this point and I'm ok with at least splitting with someone. One guy bets, 1 caller, I raise, the original bettor calls, the caller in between us raises accidently (she thought she was calling but puts too much in the pot), and I cap it out. There's about 80 in the pot now. "Ok, anything but a Q, anything but a Q" River: Q. Now the exact fucking straight I flopped is sitting on the board and anyone with an Ace takes it down.

Odds of Q or T on turn: about 1 in 8 times.
Odds of the remaining card on the river: about 1 in 15
Odds of Runner-Runner after flop: 1-2%

Running bad and hating every minute of it.
GGrr.