Sunday, November 12, 2006

What's the play?

I went to Jasper the other night and played the best limit I've played since I began. I'm confident in saying that. Even so, I left stuck one big bet. In the first 2 hours I sat down, I'd never seen so many people making or flopping the nuts. Every other hand someone had the nut flush, nut straight, or full house. It was unreal. I heard "I flopped the nuts" about 8 times in that 2 hours. I won 1 hand with AJ suited on a flop of AA7 rainbow against only a couple of people and really didn't get much action on it. I still managed to not get in trouble against any of the monsters and stayed even, thankfully. No complaints though, the pots were huge and I couldn't wait to make a hand.

Long story short, I only won 1 big pot all night, compared to the usual 3 or 4...and a couple small pots. I had a hand come up that I wanted to share and see if there was another other move I could make to have won the hand. I had AA on the button. It's checked around and I raise. I get 5 callers. The flop comes Q82 with two diamonds. It's raised by a player sitting across from me, everyone folds to a girl who calls. It's then folded around to me. I had been watching how the girl played all night because she was a pretty decent player. She folded garbage hands, only came in with solid hands, and usually only smooth called on draws. I'm pretty sure she also respected my raises because she never called them unless she had a big draw. I felt he was betting Queens and she was calling with a diamond draw. I thought my choice came to:

(12 Small Bets in the pot)

A) Raise for value. I had the best hand against two players. Just hope the diamond doesn't get there and hope the overpair holds up. I couldn't have gotten either player to fold.

B) Smooth call hoping to keep the pot smaller and raise or even better -Reraise- on the Turn and try to force out 1 player or give he/she bad odds to call, primarily the guy who would need to improve to two pair or trips to win. This was awkward though because the flop raiser was to my left. I wouldn't been been able to make a move that gave the girl the wrong odds to call so the only person I could try to force out by this would be the guy betting his Queens. If I got to make it 2 to go, it would only be because she had raised or re-raised which meant she probably hit something big. She only raised with good hands and only re-raised with huge hands.

C) Smooth call to see if the diamond hits on the turn, if it doesn't I can raise or re-raise then since her chances of making the flush were now cut in half.

I couldn't figure out any good way to protect the hand because of the position I was in and the size of the pot so I raised for value. It was called around and a diamond hit on the turn. He raised and she re-raised. The pot was now about 11.5 Big Bets with 2 to go. I folded the AA but I would have been sick if I'd laid down the best hand in that pot. At the showdown, he had a pair of Queens and she had a diamond flush.

I feel strange about laying it down because the pot was large and if I laid down the best hand it would have cost me almost 14 big bets by the end vs the 2 or 4 it would cost me to call and be wrong. If she had two pair I would have had a decent redraw to two pair or trips. I just knew she had the diamond flush though, so I'm not sure what the correct play was there.

This hand bothers me because I'm not sure what the correct play was on the flop. I think it's between betting for value or calling to see what the turn brings and betting then if it was safe since protecting the hand would have been almost impossible (unless I missed something). The last option would have lost the minimum if the flush hit but the first option would have built a bigger pot to win unless the flop raiser decided to check the turn because of my re-raise.

I also wonder what the correct play would have been if the diamond hit but it was only 1 Big Bet to go. I'm pretty sure folding would not have been right, and calling or raising to push him out would have. Any thoughts on this?

2 comments:

Anonymous said...

Preflop with AA: Easy raise no matter what in this situation.
Flop: You've got a good read - bettor probably has Qs and caller probably has 2ds. Combined they have less than 15 outs, which although is a lot, means that you win this pot more than 50% of the time. This means that every raise that goes into the pot onto the flop = more money in your pocket, so raise it up. Draws comes in sometimes, dont' worry about it, bloat the pot with your pretty decent edge here.
Turn: If you can be pretty sure she would only raise with the flush and you don't have the Ad, you can fold. I would only recommend this against very predictable players.

Anonymous said...

yeah, pot was too big to protect ur hand. u still have an edge to continue, just have to hope they hold up...played it right tho